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Deterrents of capital flight: Evidence from post-Soviet countries
Simachyova, Valeriya ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This master thesis studies the effect of government debt, corporate taxation, and inflation rate on the trade misreporting gap. Furthermore, this thesis attempted to replicate and expand the analysis of Kellenberg and Levinson (2019) on the subset of post-Soviet countries on a greater timespan to identify whether a generalized conclusion is applicable for all the developing countries. The data was collected from numerous resources (UN Comtrade, CEPII, World bank, GCR, De Sousa (2012)), with the final sample consisting of 127 countries where the leading trading partner was one of the countries from the post-Soviet union in the timespan between 2002 and 2020. It was found that for the exporting country, the government debt is positively associated with the trade gap, while there is no significant impact of corporate taxes and inflation. On the contrary, for the importer, the smaller the government debt, the larger the trade misreporting gap; the higher corporate taxation has a positive association with the illicit behavior, which can be explained by the incentive to misreport traded value; the inflation rate does not affect the trade reporting gap. Change of the data sample neither significantly affected trade gap distribution nor affected the conclusions of the earlier research.
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Capital Flight from Ukraine: Measurement and Drivers
Marchenko, Yuliia ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis presents estimates of capital flight from Ukraine in the period 1994 to 2017. We use the World Bank Residual method to calculate capital flight as a residual difference between sources and uses of funds in the economy. Our findings show that pre-2014, capital flight amounted to 7.5 billion USD on average. On the contrary, in 2014 our method reports unrecorded capital inflow of 10.7 billion USD, which took place in times of economic recession and military conflict in the east of Ukraine. We analyze the factors that might have caused reverse capital flight, and consider that increase in remittance flows, growth of the black currency market and new niches in the underground economy might have had an effect on unrecorded capital inflows. Finally, we study the components of the World Bank Residual method, and suggest that capital flight might have taken forms that the method doesn't encompass. Therefore, we underline the importance of accounting for gaps in the method by adding trade misinvoicing estimates to capital flight volumes. Keywords Ukraine, Capital Flight, World Bank Residual Method, Balance of Payments, Shadow Economy Range of thesis: 89 886 Characters
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Infinite Indebtedness
Gazdík, Vojtěch ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Bauer, Michal (referee)
Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest region in the world suffering from social, political and economic problems. The study focuses on investigation of relationship of capital flight and external debt to long-term economic growth in this region. Firstly the magnitude of capital flight is computed. Using fixed effects model and random effects model we estimate the impact of external debt and capital flight on long-term growth. Moreover the time structure of debt and its source is integrated into model. Our sample consists of 24 countries from sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1989-2008. We have found that external debt has statistically significant negative impact on growth. On the other hand this impact is economically negligible. The long-term growth is also slowed down by long-term debt and by multilateral borrowing. Concerning capital flight its effect on growth is harmful as well. JEL klasifikace: F34, O47, O55, Klíčová slova: zahraniční dluh, únik kapitálu, Subsaharská Afrika, růst
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